Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections
نویسندگان
چکیده
Changes in political leadership drive large changes economic optimism. We exploit the surprise 2016 election of Trump to identify effects a shift power on one most consequential household decisions: whether have child. Republican-leaning counties experience sharp and persistent increase fertility relative Democratic counties: 1.1 2.6 percentage point difference annual births, depending intensity partisanship. Hispanics, group targeted by Trump, see fall non-Hispanics, especially compared rural or evangelical whites. Further, following pre-election campaign visits, Hispanic declines.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Social Science Research Network
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['1556-5068']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4114454